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76 Results

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  • Topics

    • Business Cycle World (76)
    • Business Cycle (45)
    • China (31)
    • USA (31)
    • Asia (30)
    • Emerging Markets & Developing Countries (30)
    • Europe (30)
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    • Fiscal Policy & National Budgets (8)
    • Economic & Financial Crises (7)
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    • International Trade (6)
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    • Business Cycle Euro Area (3)
    • Behavioral Economics (2)
    • Business Cycle Germany (2)
    • Germany (2)
    • Digitalization (1)
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    • Natural Resources (1)
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  • Publication Type

    • Economic Outlook (31)
    • Journal Article (26)
    • Working Paper (16)
    • Brief (1)
    • Policy Article (1)
  • Research

    • Business Cycles and Growth (44)
    • Macroeconomic Research (43)
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    • Forecasting and Business Cycle Analysis (26)
    • Macroeconomic Policies over the Business Cycle (24)
    • International Macroeconomics (18)
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    • Innovation and Internationalization (1)
  • Experts

    • Klaus-Jürgen Gern (31)
    • Stefan Kooths (31)
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  • Publication Series

    • Kiel Institute Economic Outlook (31)
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  1. Journal Article

    The Real Effects of Credible Disinflation in the Presence of Real Wage Rigidities

    Economica
    08/2018
    Mewael Tesfaselassie

    The paper re‐examines the real effects of credible disinflation in the presence of real wage rigidities and non‐linear dynamics. A credible,...

  2. Journal Article

    A Note on Trend Growth, Unemployment and Optimal Monetary Policy

    Macroeconomic Dynamics
    06/2019
    Download
    Wolfgang Lechthaler, Mewael Tesfaselassie

    We analyze the implications of trend growth for optimal monetary policy in the presence of search and matching unemployment. We show that...

  3. Economic Outlook

    Gradually Better Outlook for Global Growth

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    12/2014
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths ...

    KKB 1: Die weltwirtschaftliche Expansion ist im Verlauf des Jahres 2014 erneut ins Stocken geraten. Von einem Aufschwung, der von allen...

  4. Economic Outlook

    World economic upswing continues

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    12/2017
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths ...

    KKB 37: The world economy is currently expanding strongly with upward momentum in almost every major economy. Global activity is set to expand...

  5. Economic Outlook

    World economic momentum peaks

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    03/2018
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths ...

    KKB 39: At the start of 2018 the global economy is in full swing. On a PPP-basis growth in 2017 was 3.9 percent, the highest rate since 2011.

    ...
  6. Economic Outlook

    Reduced World Economic Momentum

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    06/2018
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths ...

    KKB 43: The world economy has lost momentum in the beginning of this year, although partly due to special factors.

    ...
  7. Journal Article

    Bayesian Analysis of Static and Dynamic Factor Models: An Ex-Post Approach towards the Rotation Problem

    Journal of Econometrics
    01/2016
    Christian Aßmann, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Markus Pape

    Due to their indeterminacies, static and dynamic factor models require identifying assumptions to guarantee uniqueness of the parameter...

  8. A Skill Strategy for the New Wave of Globalization

    Kiel Focus
    06/2012
    Alessio Brown, Dennis J. Snower

    Global competition and the global financial crisis have put additional pressures on education programs around the world. A new wave of...

  9. Journal Article

    Optimal Fiscal Policy with Labor Selection

    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
    04/2019
    Sanjay K. Chugh, Wolfgang Lechthaler, Christian Merkl

    This paper characterizes long-run and short-run optimal fiscal policy in the labor selection framework. In a calibrated non-Ramsey...

  10. Journal Article

    The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Evidence from a statistical identification approach

    Journal of International Money and Finance
    03/2016
    Martin Plödt, Helmut Herwartz

    We analyze the dynamics in the global crude oil market based on a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify the model by presuming...

  11. Journal Article

    Simulation Evidence on Theory-based and Statistical Identification under Volatility Breaks

    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
    02/2016
    Martin Plödt, Helmut Herwartz

    Beside a priori theoretical assumptions on instantaneous or long-run effects of structural shocks, sign restrictions have become a prominent...

  12. Economic Outlook

    Global growth remains sluggish for the time being

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    12/2019
    Download
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths ...

    KKB 61: World output growth has slowed further in the course of 2019. However, most recently signs of stabilization appeared, especially in...

  13. Policy Article

    Deutsche Industrieproduktion schwächer

    Konjunkturschlaglicht des Wirtschaftsdiensts
    11/2019
    Nils Jannsen

    Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich seit Beginn des Jahres 2018 im Abschwung, wobei die konjunkturelle Dynamik vor allem durch das...

  14. Journal Article

    The German Labor Market During the Great Recession: Shocks and Institutions

    Economic Modelling
    05/2019
    Britta Gehrke, Wolfgang Lechthaler, Christian Merkl

    This paper analyzes Germany’s unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a...

  15. Economic Outlook

    World economic growth to pick up only gradually

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    09/2016
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths ...

    KKB 21: During the first half of the year global growth remained sluggish. While activity in emerging economies stabilized, growth in advanced...

  16. Economic Outlook

    World Economy with somewhat more steam

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    06/2016
    Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber ...

    KKB 19: The world economy seems to have stabilized in the first months of the year. The underlying growth dynamics, however, remain weak...

  17. Economic Outlook

    Stubborn weakness in the world economy

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    12/2015
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Nils Jannsen ...

    KKB 13: Global growth slowed in 2015. While we forecast the world economy to gradually gain momentum over the coming two years, the upturn is...

  18. Economic Outlook

    World economy: Continued expansion amid increased uncertainties

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    03/2017
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Salomon Fiedler, Philipp Hauber ...

    KKB 27: The world economy has gained traction in the course of 2016 despite elevated policy uncertainty and seems to have picked up further in...

  19. Economic Outlook

    Sustained acceleration of the world economy

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    06/2017
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths ...

    KKB 31: In the middle of 2017, the world economy is experiencing robust growth. Especially in the advanced economies economic sentiment is...

  20. Economic Outlook

    World economy is gaining traction

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    12/2016
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths ...

    KKB 25: World economic growth has picked up from the sluggish pace registered at the start of the year. We expect global growth at PPP...

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