The desirability of flexible exchange rates is a central tenet in international macroeconomics. We show that, with forward-looking...

We investigate whether recoveries following normal recessions differ from recoveries following recessions that are associated with...

We investigate whether recoveries following normal recessions differ from recoveries following recessions that are associated with...

Using real-time data, we analyze how the systematic expectation errors of professional forecasters in 19 advanced economies depend on...

Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used...

I analyze spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy shocks to thirteen EU countries outside the Euro area, i.e., ten countries...

We study the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy during financial crises using a Bayesian panel vector autoregressive (PVAR)...

To determine the possible welfare gains from macroeconomic stabilization policy, we adapt the ap- proach of Lucas (2003) with a...

This paper illustrates, based on an example, the importance of consistency between empirical measurement and the concept of variables...

Explains the predictable rapid acceleration of inflation at this point in time as the result of base effects and the oil price...

This paper extends the efficiency wages/partially adaptive expectations Phillips curve, otherwise known as the price-price Phillips...

This paper extends the efficiency wages/partially adaptive expectations Phillips curve, otherwise known as the price-price Phillips...

Kiel Policy Brief No. 22: The world economy is recovering from the international financial crisis with a considerable degree of...

Kiel Policy Brief No. 36: The period of imported price stability in the advanced economies may come to an end soon as inflation in...

Kiel Policy Brief No. 78: Official tax projections often exhibit increasing tax ratios in the medium term. However, such tendencies...

Kiel Policy Brief No. 112: The paper addresses the public budget surpluses in Germany against the backdrop of the coalition talks...

Kiel Policy Brief No. 94: The Kiel Institute’s researchers Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber and Galina Potjagailo address the...

Germany’s leading economics research institutes have downwardly revised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019. They now expect economic...

The economic upturn in Germany is entering its sixth year, but is losing momentum. This is due to both demand and supply side factors....