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137 Results

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    • Business Cycle (137)
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  1. Economic Outlook

    Euro Area Economy Spring 2022: War in Ukraine impairs post-pandemic recovery

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
    03/2022
    Download
    Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Stefan Kooths ...

    KKB 88: Economic output in the euro area has recently returned to its pre-pandemic level. The surge in infections since early 2022 had only...

  2. Economic Outlook

    Joint Economic Forecast 2/21: Crisis is gradually being overcome – align actions to lower growth

    Joint Economic Forecast
    10/2021
    Download
    Prof. Dr. Oliver Holtemöller, Prof. Dr. Martin Gornig, Prof. Dr. Torsten Schmidt ...

    The Corona pandemic still shapes the economic situation in Germany. A complete normalisation of contact-intensive activities is not to be...

  3. Policy Article

    Rising Inflation – Transitory or Cause for Concern?

    Monetary Dialogue Papers
    09/2021
    Joscha Beckmann, Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber ...

    Consumer price inflation in the euro area has sharply risen to 3% in the course of 2021. This increase was mainly due to higher energy prices...

  4. Economic Outlook

    Euro Area Autumn 2021: Recovery temporarily at slower pace

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
    09/2021
    Download
    Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Stefan Kooths ...

    KKB 82: The euro area economy is rapidly approaching its pre-crisis production level. After a strong increase in the second quarter, economic...

  5. Economic Outlook

    Joint Economic Forecast 1/21: Pandemic delays upswing – Demography slows growth

    Joint Economic Forecast
    04/2021
    Download
    Torsten Schmidt, Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths ...

    In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7 percent in the current...

  6. Economic Outlook

    Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Winter 2020/2021

    Euroframe Forecast
    02/2021
    Download
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern

    Against the backdrop of European economies being in partial lockdown again due to the Covid-19 pandemic, this report presents an assessment of...

  7. Policy Article

    Germany's economy in times of the Corona Lockdown

    Kiel Policy Brief
    04/2020
    Download
    Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Hendrik Mahlkow

    Kiel Policy Brief Special Corona-Update 1: In times of a sudden crisis, such as the coronavirus, official statistics cannot cope with current...

  8. Brief

    Entwicklung der US-Industrie: Kein Trump-Effekt erkennbar

    10/2020
    Download
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber

    Trump has failed with his campaign promises to achieve complete revitalization of the US manufacturing industry. His economic policy has not...

  9. Policy Article

    Aligning fiscal policy with foresight

    Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik
    10/2020
    Download
    Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Gabriel Felbermayr, Stefan Kooths ...

    KBW 30: The authors note that, although public budgets showed significant surpluses before the Corona crisis, both revenues and expenditures...

  10. Economic Outlook

    Joint Economic Forecast 2/20: Recovery Loses Momentum - Economy and Politics Still Shaped by the Pandemic

    Joint Economic Forecast
    10/2020
    Download
    Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Claus Michelsen ...

    The corona pandemic leaves substantial marks in the German economy and its impact is more persistent than assumed in spring.

    ...
  11. Working Paper

    Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence and Output Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment

    Kiel Working Papers
    08/2020
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    Wolfgang Lechthaler, Mewael F. Tesfaselassie

    We embed human capital-based endogenous growth into a New-Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and skill...

  12. Journal Article

    The Real Effects of Credible Disinflation in the Presence of Real Wage Rigidities

    Economica
    08/2018
    Mewael Tesfaselassie

    The paper re‐examines the real effects of credible disinflation in the presence of real wage rigidities and non‐linear dynamics. A credible,...

  13. Policy Article

    Despite full cash boxes: do not implement every election promise in the next coalition agreement! (in German)

    Kiel Policy Brief
    01/2018
    Download
    Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

    Kiel Policy Brief No. 112: The paper addresses the public budget surpluses in Germany against the backdrop of the coalition talks between...

  14. Policy Article

    TARGET (im-)balances at record level: Should we worry?

    11/2017
    Salomon Fiedler, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg

    We take stock of the current evidence on fragmentation in financial markets in the  euro area and discuss policy options to facilitate...

  15. Economic Outlook

    Joint Economic Forecast 1/20: Economy in Shock – Fiscal Policy to Counteract

    Joint Economic Forecast
    04/2020
    Download
    Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Claus Michelsen ...

    The coronavirus pandemic is triggering a severe recession in Germany. Economic output will shrink by 4.2 percent this year.

    ...
  16. Journal Article

    The Inherent Benefit of Monetary Unions

    Journal of Monetary Economics
    05/2020
    Dominik Groll, Tommaso Monacelli

    If the monetary authority lacks commitment, a monetary union can dominate flexible exchange rates. With forward-looking staggered pricing,...

  17. Policy Article

    Stabilization policy in times of Corona

    Kiel Policy Brief
    04/2020
    Download
    Stefan Kooths, Gabriel Felbermayr

    Kiel Policy Brief No. 138: The corona pandemic causes a global interaction shock that puts the world economy under massive stress....

  18. Economic Outlook

    Euro area economy slows further

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
    03/2019
    Download
    Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll ...

    KKB 52: The euro area economy has once again switched back a gear. The slowdown over the course of 2018 is mainly due to weaker impulses from...

  19. Policy Article

    Estimating potential output and the output gap – An analysis of the EU approach and suggestions for improvement (in German)

    Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik
    02/2019
    Download
    Martin Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Kai Carstensen ...

    KBW 19: Measures of potential output and the output gap are of great importance for policy-makers who need to assess the cyclical position of...

  20. Journal Article

    A Note on Trend Growth, Unemployment and Optimal Monetary Policy

    Macroeconomic Dynamics
    06/2019
    Download
    Wolfgang Lechthaler, Mewael Tesfaselassie

    We analyze the implications of trend growth for optimal monetary policy in the presence of search and matching unemployment. We show that...

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