We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time...

We study the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy during financial crises using a Bayesian panel vector autoregressive (PVAR)...

We take stock of the current evidence on fragmentation in financial markets in the  euro area and discuss policy options to...

Over the past months, the Covid-19 pandemic has progressively affected economic activity globally, including in Germany. ...

The coronavirus pandemic is triggering a severe recession in Germany. Economic output will shrink by 4.2 percent this year. ...

If the monetary authority lacks commitment, a monetary union can dominate flexible exchange rates. With forward-looking staggered...

In this paper, we exploit exogenous variation in navigability of the Rhine river to analyze the impact of weather-related supply...

Kiel Policy Brief No. 138: The corona pandemic causes a global interaction shock that puts the world economy under massive stress....

Kiel Policy Brief No. 139: In cooperation with the World Free Zones Organization, the IfW Kiel has conducted a survey among special...

KKB 64: The spread of the corona virus poses major challenges for the euro area economy. Sentiment indicators for February still point...

This EUROFRAME Report presents an assessment of the economic outlook for 2020 and 2021 focused on the euro area based on a synopsis of...

KKB 52: The euro area economy has once again switched back a gear. The slowdown over the course of 2018 is mainly due to weaker...

The paper re‐examines the real effects of credible disinflation in the presence of real wage rigidities and non‐linear dynamics. A...

KBW 19: Measures of potential output and the output gap are of great importance for policy-makers who need to assess the cyclical...

The effects of monetary policy during financial crises differ substantially from those in normal times. Using a panel VAR for 20...

This paper analyzes Germany’s unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with...

We analyze the implications of trend growth for optimal monetary policy in the presence of search and matching unemployment. We show...

KKB 58: The euro area economy is currently expanding at a moderate pace. The underlying momentum has slowed noticeably since early...

KKB 14: German GDP is expected to increase by 1.8 percent (2015), 2.2 percent (2016), and 2.3 percent (2017). With capacity...