We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time...

We study the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy during financial crises using a Bayesian panel vector autoregressive (PVAR)...

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large data forecasting approaches. These three approaches handle the...

The effects of monetary policy during financial crises differ substantially from those in normal times. Using a panel VAR for 20...

KKB 59: The German economy is at the brink of a recession. Gross domestic product is likely to decline again in the third quarter. ...

The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently...

KKB 15: Global growth has slowed down recently. While the world economy should gradually regain pace over the coming quarters, overall...

KKB 7: Following a weak start into 2015, the global economy is expected to pick up again in the course of this year. ...

KKB 9: The world economy is expanding at a more moderate pace with growth momentum continuing to shift from emerging to advanced...

KKB 11: German GDP is expected to increase by 1.8 percent (2015), 2.1 percent (2016), and 2.3 percent (2017). ...

KKB 35: The pronounced expansion of the German economy accelerates further. Compared to our summer forecast, we adjust our forecast...

KKB 44: The strong economic upswing in Germany has taken a break. For the current year, we revise our GDP growth forecast down by 0.5...

Kiel Policy Brief No. 90: According to the authors, improving institutions to stimulate entrepreneurial action and investment is the...

Globalization influences inflation and the transmission channels of monetary policy in various ways. ...

The ECB has adopted a variety of unconventional monetary policy measures since the Global Financial Crisis. In this paper, we assess...

We analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies....

The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently...

This paper illustrates, based on an example, the importance of consistency between empirical measurement and the concept of variables...

We take stock of the current evidence on fragmentation in financial markets in the  euro area and discuss policy options to...