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42 Results

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  • Topics

    • Monetary Policy (14)
    • Business Cycle (13)
    • European Union & Euro (8)
    • Business Cycle World (6)
    • Labor Market (6)
    • Business Cycle Euro Area (5)
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    • Fiscal Policy & National Budgets (5)
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    • Journal Article (18)
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  • Research

    • Macroeconomic Research (32)
    • Business Cycles and Growth (25)
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    • Macroeconomic Policies over the Business Cycle (14)
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  • Experts

    • Maik Wolters (42)
    • Nils Jannsen (18)
    • Salomon Fiedler (13)
    • Stefan Kooths (11)
    • Galina Potjagailo (9)
    • Klaus-Jürgen Gern (9)
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  • Publication Series

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  • Experts: Maik Wolters
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  1. Working Paper

    Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?

    Kiel Working Papers
    08/2015
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    Nils Jannsen, Maik Wolters, Galina Potjagailo

    We study the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy during financial crises using a Bayesian panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model for 20...

  2. Working Paper

    The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Dynamic General Equilibrium

    Kiel Working Papers
    09/2014
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    Maik Wolters

    We provide a systematic analysis of the transmission of fiscal consolidation via various instruments in a medium-scale dynamic general...

  3. Working Paper

    How the Baby Boomers' Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap Estimates

    Kiel Working Papers
    02/2016
    Download
    Maik Wolters

    Hours per capita measures based on the private sector as usually included in the set of observables for estimating macroeconomic models are...

  4. Journal Article

    Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? A Literature Review with an Application to the Euro Area

    Review of Economics
    12/2016
    Salomon Fiedler, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Reitz ...

    Globalization influences inflation and the transmission channels of monetary policy in various ways. The effects of globalization on the...

  5. Journal Article

    A New Comparative Approach to Macroeconomic Modeling and Policy Analysis

    Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
    08/2012
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    Volker Wieland, Maik Wolters, Tobias Cwik ...

    In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomicmodeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has...

  6. Working Paper

    Reliable Real-time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter

    Kiel Working Papers
    06/2020
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    Josefine Quast, Maik Wolters

    We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap...

  7. Journal Article

    The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy

    Economic Theory
    06/2011
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    Volker Wieland, Maik Wolters

    This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding...

  8. Working Paper

    The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach

    Kiel Working Papers
    08/2014
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    Peter Tillmann, Maik Wolters

    We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation...

  9. Working Paper

    Estimating the impact of climate change on agricultural production: accounting for technology heterogeneity across countries

    Kiel Working Papers
    05/2014
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    Andreas Exenberger, Andreas Pondorfer, Maik Wolters

    We estimate the impact of climate change on agricultural production in a panel of 127 countries from 1961 to 2002. In contrast to the existing...

  10. Journal Article

    The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach

    Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
    04/2015
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    Peter Tillmann, Maik Wolters

    We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation...

  11. Working Paper

    Forecasting with Large Datasets: Aggregating Before, During or After the Estimation?

    Kiel Working Papers
    05/2014
    Download
    Inske Pirschel, Maik Wolters

    We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large data forecasting approaches. These three approaches handle the dimensionality...

  12. Journal Article

    The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. a High Inflation Environment

    Review of Economic Dynamics
    04/2018
    Mewael Tesfaselassie, Maik Wolters

    The standard search model of unemployment predicts, under realistic assumptions about household preferences, that disembodied technological...

  13. Journal Article

    Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Transmission Channels and Risks

    Intereconomics
    08/2015
    Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths ...

    The ECB’s recently launched Expanded Asset Purchasing Programme is similar to the quantitative easing programmes undertaken by the US Federal...

  14. Economic Outlook

    German economy approaches boom period

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
    09/2017
    Martin Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler ...

    KKB 35: The pronounced expansion of the German economy accelerates further. Compared to our summer forecast, we adjust our forecast for the...

  15. Working Paper

    Global Financial Cycles since 1880

    Kiel Working Papers
    03/2019
    Download
    Galina Potjagailo, Maik Wolters

    We analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a...

  16. Economic Outlook

    German Economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
    06/2018
    Martin Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler ...

    KKB 44: The strong economic upswing in Germany has taken a break. For the current year, we revise our GDP growth forecast down by 0.5...

  17. Journal Article

    How the Baby Boomers' Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap Estimates

    Journal of Applied Econometrics
    06/2018
    Maik Wolters

    This paper illustrates, based on an example, the importance of consistency between empirical measurement and the concept of variables in...

  18. Journal Article

    Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?

    International Journal of Central Banking
    10/2019
    Nils Jannsen, Galina Potjagailo, Maik Wolters

    The effects of monetary policy during financial crises differ substantially from those in normal times. Using a panel VAR for 20 advanced...

  19. Journal Article

    Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy

    Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal
    06/2019
    Salomon Fiedler, Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Nils Jannsen ...

    The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently below the...

  20. Policy Article

    Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy

    In-Depth Analysis prepared for the Monetary Dialogue of the European Parliament, November
    11/2018
    Nils Jannsen, Salomon Fiedler, Klaus-Jürgen Gern ...

    The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently below the...

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