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29 Results

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  • Topics

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  • Experts

    • Jonas Dovern (29)
    • Wilfried Rickels (7)
    • Ulrich Fritsche (6)
    • Jörg Döpke (5)
    • Martin Quaas (5)
    • Jiri Slacalek (4)
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  • Publication Series

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  • Experts: Jonas Dovern
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  1. Journal Article

    International Transmission and Business Cycle Effects of Financial Stress

    Journal of Financial Stability
    08/2014
    Björn van Roye, Jonas Dovern

    We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on global economic activity. Our analysis is based on...

  2. Policy Article

    Challenge Climate Engineering – Assessment of new options for climate protection (in German)

    Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik
    06/2016
    Download
    Gernot Klepper, Jonas Dovern, Wilfried Rickels ...

    KBW 8: Climate Engineering revolves around the exploration and deployment of CE technologies, both in public and in science. The central...

  3. Policy Article

    Causes of growth weakness in Germany 1995–2005 (in German)

    Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik
    07/2009
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    Alfred Boss, Jonas Dovern, Klaus-Jürgen Gern ...

    KBW 2: After the reunification, in Germany economic growth was weak from a historical as well as international perspective. In particular, the...

  4. Working Paper

    Predicting GDP Components. Do Leading Indicators Increase Predictability?

    ASP Working Paper Series
    07/2006
    Download
    Jonas Dovern

    We use the concept of predictability as presented in Diebold and Kilian (2001) to assess how well the growth rates of various components of...

  5. Journal Article

    Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence

    Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
    10/2008
    Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Jirka Slacalek ...

    We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from...

  6. SURVEY EXPECTATIONS IN G7-COUNTRIES

    06/2007
    Download
    Jonas Dovern, Johannes Weisser

    This paper documents parts of the Consensus Economics survey data set on professional forecasters’ expectations on macroeconomic variables. We...

  7. Working Paper

    Sticky Information Phillips Curve: European Evidence

    01/2006
    Download
    Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Jiri Slacalek ...

    We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from...

  8. Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions

    Applied Economics Quarterly
    01/2008
    Jonas Dovern, Christina Ziegler

    In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we...

  9. Book & E-book

    Large-Scale Intentional Intervention s into the Climate System? Assessing the Climate Engineering Debate

    12/2011
    Wilfried Rickels, Gernot Klepper, Jonas Dovern ...

    German Scoping Survey on CE in now available in English. The Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) has an interdisciplinary team...

  10. Journal Article

    The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics
    03/2008
    Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Jiri Slacalek ...

    We investigate the relevance of the Carroll’s sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France,...

  11. Working Paper

    European inflation expectations dynamics

    01/2005
    Download
    Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Jiri Slacalek ...

    This paper investigates the relevance of the sticky information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and Carroll (2003) for four major European...

  12. Working Paper

    Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts

    05/2008
    Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche

    A couple of recent papers have shifted the focus on disagreement of professional forecasters. When dealing with survey data that includes only...

  13. DFG-Antrag, Inflationsunsicherheit

    03/2008
    Kai Carstensen, Jonas Dovern, Helmut Herwartz

  14. Journal Article

    Aid and Growth Accelerations: An Alternative Approach to Assess the Effectiveness of Aid

    Kyklos
    01/2007
    Jonas Dovern, Peter Nunnenkamp

    The paper applies an alternative approach to assess whether foreign aid promotes economic growth in developing countries, based on the concept...

  15. Working Paper

    Are They Really Rational? Assessing Professional Macro-Economic Forecasts from the G7-Countries

    Kiel Working Papers
    09/2008
    Download
    Jonas Dovern, Johannes Weisser

    In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the rationality of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze both individual forecasts and...

  16. Journal Article

    Systematic Errors in Growth Expectations over the Business Cycle

    International Journal of Forecasting
    06/2017
    Jonas Dovern, Nils Jannsen

    We document that growth forecasts of professional forecasters in advanced economies exhibit systematic errors and analyze how these errors...

  17. Working Paper

    Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions

    Kiel Working Papers
    01/2008
    Download
    Jonas Dovern, Christina Ziegler

    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In...

  18. Working Paper

    Aid and Growth Accelerations. An Alternative Approach to Assess the Effectiveness of Aid

    Kiel Working Papers
    09/2006
    Download
    Jonas Dovern, Peter Nunnenkamp

    It continues to be heavily disputed whether foreign aid promotes economic growth in developing countries. In most cross-country regressions,...

  19. Working Paper

    Systematic Errors in Growth Expectations over the Business Cycle

    Kiel Working Papers
    02/2015
    Download
    Jonas Dovern, Nils Jannsen

    Using real-time data, we analyze how the systematic expectation errors of professional forecasters in 19 advanced economies depend on the...

  20. Working Paper

    Disagreement on Inflation Expectations in G7-Countries

    06/2007
    Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Jiri Slacalek ...

    We investigate a new survey data set from Consensus Economics containing disaggregate expert inflation forecasts for all G7-countries. We find...

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