We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on global economic activity. Our analysis is based on...

KBW 8: Climate Engineering revolves around the exploration and deployment of CE technologies, both in public and in science. The central...

KBW 2: After the reunification, in Germany economic growth was weak from a historical as well as international perspective. In particular, the...

We use the concept of predictability as presented in Diebold and Kilian (2001) to assess how well the growth rates of various components of...

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from...

This paper documents parts of the Consensus Economics survey data set on professional forecasters’ expectations on macroeconomic variables. We...

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from...

In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we...

German Scoping Survey on CE in now available in English. The Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) has an interdisciplinary team...

We investigate the relevance of the Carroll’s sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France,...

This paper investigates the relevance of the sticky information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and Carroll (2003) for four major European...

A couple of recent papers have shifted the focus on disagreement of professional forecasters. When dealing with survey data that includes only...

The paper applies an alternative approach to assess whether foreign aid promotes economic growth in developing countries, based on the concept...

In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the rationality of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze both individual forecasts and...

We document that growth forecasts of professional forecasters in advanced economies exhibit systematic errors and analyze how these errors...

Abstract: In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In...

It continues to be heavily disputed whether foreign aid promotes economic growth in developing countries. In most cross-country regressions,...

Using real-time data, we analyze how the systematic expectation errors of professional forecasters in 19 advanced economies depend on the...

We investigate a new survey data set from Consensus Economics containing disaggregate expert inflation forecasts for all G7-countries. We find...