We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional...

This paper provides empirical evidence suggesting that in industrial countries, recessions that are associated with either banking...

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional...

We investigate the relevance of the Carroll’s sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies...

This paper investigates the relevance of the sticky information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and Carroll (2003) for four major...

Most pure public goods like lighthouses, dams, or national defense provide utility mainly by insuring against hazardous events. Our...

This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP...

This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP...

The desirability of flexible exchange rates is a central tenet in international macroeconomics. We show that, with forward-looking...

We present a new theory of decision under uncertainty: third-generation prospect theory (PT3). This retains the predictive power of...

Since the announcement of the outright monetary transactions program (OMT), government bond yield spreads have decreased substantially...

We investigate whether recoveries following normal recessions differ from recoveries following recessions that are associated with...

We investigate whether recoveries following normal recessions differ from recoveries following recessions that are associated with...

Using real-time data, we analyze how the systematic expectation errors of professional forecasters in 19 advanced economies depend on...

I analyze spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy shocks to thirteen EU countries outside the Euro area, i.e., ten countries...

We analyze the dynamics in the global crude oil market based on a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify the model by...

The macroeconomic surveillance mechanism of the European Union, namely the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP), is based on the...

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its eff ects on global economic activity. Our analysis is based on...

Kiel Policy Brief No. 25: In response to the recent global recession triggered by the financial crisis of 2007, many governments have...

Kiel Policy Brief No. 90: According to the authors, improving institutions to stimulate entrepreneurial action and investment is the...