Dr. Vincent Stamer

The purpose of the report is to provide a systematic overview of the relevant data related to Big Data and their potential for macroeconomic analysis (in particular business cycle monitoring and forecasting). In this context, both the possibilities and the challenges that may arise due to data availability, data quality, methodological requirements or the manageability of the data will be discussed in detail.

In August, global trade shows a clear countermovement to the weak summer months. The values of the Kiel Trade Indicator for global trade and also for the trade of major economies are all positive and, in some cases, show significant increases compared with the previous month of July (adjusted for price and seasonal effects). In Russia's ports, the number of container ships arriving is surging and, despite sanctions and a weak ruble, is almost at the level seen before the outbreak of the war. The congestion off the Panama Canal has only minor importance for global goods trade.

According to the latest data update of the Kiel Trade Indicator, world trade was slightly positive in June, supported primarily by China's trade (month-on-month comparison, price and seasonally adjusted). The country is increasingly freeing itself from last winter's trade trough and exported more goods in March, measured in current prices, than any country ever before. Germany and the EU, on the other hand, are continuing their weak phase of recent months, but the gloomy picture from the beginning of the month is not confirmed. The low water level in the Panama Canal is making itself felt again in the form of increasing shipping congestion at ports.

According to the latest data update of the Kiel Trade Indicator, world trade was slightly positive in June, supported primarily by China's trade (month-on-month comparison, price and seasonally adjusted). The country is increasingly freeing itself from last winter's trade trough and exported more goods in March, measured in current prices, than any country ever before. Germany and the EU, on the other hand, are continuing their weak phase of recent months, but the gloomy picture from the beginning of the month is not confirmed. The low water level in the Panama Canal is making itself felt again in the form of increasing shipping congestion at ports.