Forecasting Center

The Forecasting Center is the Kiel Institute’s macroeconomic think tank and business cycle analysis unit. Bringing together theoretical expertise, empirical evidence, and institutional knowledge is key to our mission. Based on the ongoing diagnosis of macroeconomic developments and policy challenges, we act as an interface between external Kiel Institute stakeholders and the Kiel Institute’s researchers. We proactively identify relevant problems, develop research-based solutions, and communicate the results in the form of consulting output. Alongside our forecasting exercises and policy analytics, we provide feedback to academia on the practicability of empirical methods and theoretical models.

Our comprehensive package of regular forecasts comprises quarterly outlooks for the world economy and Germany (two-year horizon), complemented by semiannual outlooks for the euro area and medium-term projections for Germany (five-year horizon), including in-depth analysis of potential output. We contribute to the Joint Economic Forecast produced by Germany’s leading economic research institutes and to the government’s Federal Tax Revenue Projections. Our work is fed into all major consensus polls, including the ECB survey of professional forecasters. We cooperate with partners all over the world, such as the European research networks EUROFRAME and AIECE. The Kieler Konjunkturgespräche is our flagship conference on international business cycles and global economic affairs, where we share our research outcomes and discuss global macroeconomic issues with other forecasters, policymakers, and business leaders.

Policy advice is directed to national and international addressees, with international outreach gaining in importance on the EU level (macroeconomic surveillance, monetary policy). Our strong media impact and involvement in policy-oriented committees reflect the relevance of our work and our influence as a think tank.