Estimating potential output and the output gap – An analysis of revisions and cyclicality

Start of Project 01/2017
End of Project 12/2018
Professional welder in a factory welding steel bars

This study aims at investigating the extent and causes of revisions of output gap estimates and at analyzing methodological issues along different phases of the business cycle. Based on this, possibilities for improvement of the European Commission's current estimation approach are elaborated and evaluated.