Mapping Africa’s Import Product Dependency — Socrates Majune

Speaker

Dr. Socrates Majune, University of Nairobi

Abstract

This study tracks Africa’s excessive reliance on imported products based on five criteria: market concentration, foreign demand, capacity for domestic substitution, market relevance and product elasticity of substitution. Using Africa-partner country-product import data for 5,384 products between 1995 and 2022, we find that roughly 10% of products imported into Africa by value and volume are dependent. Africa’s dependent imports are mainly machines and electronics, transportation equipment, vegetables, and food products, and are primarily intermediate and consumption. These products are mainly sourced from Asia, whose share of risky imports in Africa has nearly tripled over the past three decades. China is currently the main source of Africa’s risky imports, while Brazil’s, India’s, and South Africa’s roles in supplying these products have soared in the past decade. Risky import products have a lower import survival rate than non-risky products, and most industries that rely on them are in the transport sector. Multilateral organizations and African countries can consider developing a common definition and list of products deemed as dependent imports whose trade performance can be tracked regularly. Targeted support for producers of dependent products and countries more likely to suffer from their scarcity can also be pursued. Ultimately, African countries can pursue strong and diversified trade relationships and commercial partnerships with other countries to reduce excessive interdependencies.

Room

Virtually via Zoom – if interested, please send an Email to kcg-office@ifw-kiel.de to receive the Seminar-Link or to register for participation in Kiel.

If you would like to be regularly informed about upcoming Kiel Trade Talks, please subscribe to our mailing list here.
If you do not wish to receive any further e-mails from us, please click here.