Dr. Vincent Stamer

The purpose of the report is to provide a systematic overview of the relevant data related to Big Data and their potential for macroeconomic analysis (in particular business cycle monitoring and forecasting). In this context, both the possibilities and the challenges that may arise due to data availability, data quality, methodological requirements or the manageability of the data will be discussed in detail.

After weaknesses in previous months, global trade showed a clear upward trend in October (compared to the month of September, price and seasonally adjusted). Such strong growth was last seen in March. The upturn is also being driven in particular by the member states of the European Union, where economic output has recently contracted slightly. The strong trade figures are therefore a positive sign for growth in the fourth quarter. China's trade, on the other hand, is following the downward pull of a subdued global economy.

Global trade takes a breather in September. Compared with the surprisingly strong August figures, the Kiel Trade Indicator shows a sideways movement (price and seasonally adjusted). The countermovement is quite pronounced for Germany, where imports and exports are in the red. Overall, the container ship network is stable: the volume of goods shipped is high, congestion is declining and freight rates are falling significantly.

In August, global trade shows a clear countermovement to the weak summer months. The values of the Kiel Trade Indicator for global trade and also for the trade of major economies are all positive and, in some cases, show significant increases compared with the previous month of July (adjusted for price and seasonal effects). In Russia's ports, the number of container ships arriving is surging and, despite sanctions and a weak ruble, is almost at the level seen before the outbreak of the war. The congestion off the Panama Canal has only minor importance for global goods trade.