Dr. Ulrich Stolzenburg

Knowledge Creation and Growth, Forecasting Center

Topics: Business Cycle Euro Area, European Union & Euro

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Main research interests

Business cycle analysis and forecasting, European monetary union, Monetary policy, Agent-based computational macroeconomics

Since mid-2015: Economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy
2007-2015: Dr. sc. pol., Doctoral program "Quantitative Economics" at the University of Kiel. Dissertation: "Essays on Economic Growth and Business Cycle Dynamics".
2011-2013: Data Analyst at the Institute for Innovation Research, University of Kiel.
2001-2007: Degree in Economics at the University of Kiel, majoring in Econometrics, Statistics and International Economic Relations. 2003: Visit at the Rotterdam School of Economics, Netherlands.
Married, 2 kids

This article describes a simulated monetary macro model with different types of interacting agents. As such, it is assigned to the field of agent-based computational...

KBW 15: In a full reserve system, commercial banks would lose the ability to create money out of thin air and to use sight deposits as a source of funding. ...

To determine the possible welfare gains from macroeconomic stabilization policy, we adapt the ap- proach of Lucas (2003) with a risk-averse representative agent. However,...

Matthias Lengnick , Ulrich Stolzenburg

To determine the possible welfare gains from macroeconomic stabilization policy, we adapt the ap- proach of Lucas (2003) with a...

Ulrich Stolzenburg

A panel data set covering 145 countries between 1960 and 2010 has been investigated closely by using models of parameter...

Ulrich Stolzenburg

This article describes a simulated monetary macro model with different types of interacting agents. As such, it is assigned to the...

Thomas Lux , Ulrich Stolzenburg

Processes of social opinion formation might be dominated by a set of highly influential agents acting as 'opinion leaders'. Here we...

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Economic Outlook

Euro area economy slows further

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area

03/2019

Jens Boysen-Hogrefe , Salomon Fiedler , Dominik Groll ...

KKB 52: The euro area economy has once again switched back a gear. The slowdown over the course of 2018 is mainly due to weaker...

Economic Outlook

Reduced momentum in the world economy

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World

03/2019

Klaus-Jürgen Gern , Philipp Hauber , Stefan Kooths ...

KKB 51: The world economy has lost steam in the second half of the previous year and is likely to continue to expand at a subdued pace...

Martin Ademmer , Jens Boysen-Hogrefe , Kai Carstensen ...

KBW 19: Measures of potential output and the output gap are of great importance for policy-makers who need to assess the cyclical...

Economic Outlook

Slower growth in the World Economy

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World

12/2018

Klaus-Jürgen Gern , Philipp Hauber , Stefan Kooths ...

KKB 49: World economic growth is moderating accompanied by a broad-based deterioration in economic sentiment. ...

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The LIME working group is intended to drive forward the development of methodological approaches to track, analyse and model structural reforms carried out in the context of the Lisbon strategy and the Integrated...

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This study aims at investigating the extent and causes of revisions of output gap estimates and at analyzing methodological issues along different phases of the business cycle. Based on this, possibilities for improvement...

Embedded in a comprehensive outlook for the world economy, the Joint Economic Forecast („Gemeinschaftsdiagnose“, GD) prepares in-debth analyses and forecasts for the German economy (detailed 2-year horizon and 5-year...

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Despite to economic headwinds, researchers at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) have revised their forecasts only...

German GDP expected to increase by 1.8 percent (2015), 2.1 percent (2016), and 2.3 percent (2017) – Strong consumption growth...

Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and...

Dr. Ulrich Stolzenburg

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Main research interests

Selected Publications

The Agent-Based Solow Growth Model with Endogenous Business Cycles

Full money and full reserve: What is the benefit of a new money order? (in German)

Additional Welfare Gains From Stabilization Policy

Additional Welfare Gains From Stabilization Policy

Growth Determinants Across Time and Space – A Semiparametric Panel Data Approach

The Agent-Based Solow Growth Model with Endogenous Business Cycles

Identification of a Core-Periphery Structure Among Participants of a Business Climate Survey

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Euro area economy slows further

Reduced momentum in the world economy

Estimating potential output and the output gap – An analysis of the EU approach and suggestions for improvement (in German)

Slower growth in the World Economy

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Scientific advisory services to German participants in the Working Group on the Methodology to assess Lisbon related structural reforms (LIME) of the Economic Policy Committee of the European Union 2019

Scientific advisory services to German participants in the Working Group on the Methodology to assess Lisbon related structural reforms (LIME) of the Economic Policy Committee of the European Union 2017/18

Estimating potential output and the output gap – An analysis of revisions and cyclicality

Joint Economic Forecast

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IfW Economic Forecast: German Economy Remains on Track

Economic Outlook of the Kiel Institute 2015 – 2017: Robust German economy in an uncertain international environment

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Economic Outlook

Kiel Institute for
the World Economy

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Main research interests

Selected Publications

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Updates from the Kiel Institute

Updates from the Kiel Institute