Dr. Ulrich Stolzenburg

Knowledge Creation and Growth, Forecasting Center

Topics: Business Cycle Euro Area, European Union & Euro

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Main research interests

Business cycle analysis and forecasting, European monetary union, Monetary policy, Agent-based computational macroeconomics

Since mid-2015: Economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy
2007-2015: Dr. sc. pol., Doctoral program "Quantitative Economics" at the University of Kiel. Dissertation: "Essays on Economic Growth and Business Cycle Dynamics".
2011-2013: Data Analyst at the Institute for Innovation Research, University of Kiel.
2001-2007: Degree in Economics at the University of Kiel, majoring in Econometrics, Statistics and International Economic Relations. 2003: Visit at the Rotterdam School of Economics, Netherlands.
Married, 2 kids

Economic Outlook

Euro Area economy loses steam

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area

09/2018

KKB 46: The Euro area economy has lost momentum in the first half of 2018. The slowdown was due to country-specific temporary factors and a weakness of world trade since...

KBW 19: Measures of potential output and the output gap are of great importance for policy-makers who need to assess the cyclical position of the economy and its...

KBW 15: In a full reserve system, commercial banks would lose the ability to create money out of thin air and to use sight deposits as a source of funding. ...

This article describes a simulated monetary macro model with different types of interacting agents. As such, it is assigned to the field of agent-based computational...

Matthias Lengnick, Ulrich Stolzenburg

To determine the possible welfare gains from macroeconomic stabilization policy, we adapt the ap- proach of Lucas (2003) with a...

Ulrich Stolzenburg

A panel data set covering 145 countries between 1960 and 2010 has been investigated closely by using models of parameter...

Ulrich Stolzenburg

This article describes a simulated monetary macro model with different types of interacting agents. As such, it is assigned to the...

Thomas Lux, Ulrich Stolzenburg

Processes of social opinion formation might be dominated by a set of highly influential agents acting as 'opinion leaders'. Here we...

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Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Klaus-Jürgen Gern ...

Over the past months, the Covid-19 pandemic has progressively affected economic activity globally, including in Germany. ...

Economic Outlook

World Economy Under Strain

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World

03/2020

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Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths ...

KKB 63: In early 2020 the world economy is severely affected by the consequences of a novel coronavirus and the measures implemented...

Economic Outlook

Euro area faces recession

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area

03/2020

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Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll ...

KKB 64: The spread of the corona virus poses major challenges for the euro area economy. Sentiment indicators for February still point...

Economic Outlook

German economy: V(irus)-shaped recession ahead

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany

03/2020

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Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll ...

KKB 65: The spread of the coronavirus will have a considerable impact on the German economy. The economy will be hit in a situation in...

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The purpose of the report is to provide a systematic overview of the relevant data related to Big Data and their potential for macroeconomic analysis (in particular business cycle monitoring and forecasting). In this...

The LIME working group is intended to drive forward the development of methodological approaches to track, analyse and model structural reforms carried out in the context of the Lisbon strategy and the Integrated...

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This study aims at investigating the extent and causes of revisions of output gap estimates and at analyzing methodological issues along different phases of the business cycle. Based on this, possibilities for improvement...

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Despite to economic headwinds, researchers at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) have revised their forecasts only...

German GDP expected to increase by 1.8 percent (2015), 2.1 percent (2016), and 2.3 percent (2017) – Strong consumption growth...

Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and...

Dr. Ulrich Stolzenburg

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Main research interests

Selected Publications

Euro Area economy loses steam

Estimating potential output and the output gap – An analysis of the EU approach and suggestions for improvement (in German)

Full money and full reserve: What is the benefit of a new money order? (in German)

The Agent-Based Solow Growth Model with Endogenous Business Cycles

Additional Welfare Gains From Stabilization Policy

Growth Determinants Across Time and Space – A Semiparametric Panel Data Approach

The Agent-Based Solow Growth Model with Endogenous Business Cycles

Identification of a Core-Periphery Structure Among Participants of a Business Climate Survey

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Outlook for the World Economy and the German Economy: Interim Forecast Spring 2020

World Economy Under Strain

Euro area faces recession

German economy: V(irus)-shaped recession ahead

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Big data in macroeconomics

Scientific advisory services to German participants in the Working Group on the Methodology to assess Lisbon related structural reforms (LIME) of the Economic Policy Committee of the European Union 2019

Scientific advisory services to German participants in the Working Group on the Methodology to assess Lisbon related structural reforms (LIME) of the Economic Policy Committee of the European Union 2017/18

Estimating potential output and the output gap – An analysis of revisions and cyclicality

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IfW Economic Forecast: German Economy Remains on Track

Economic Outlook of the Kiel Institute 2015 – 2017: Robust German economy in an uncertain international environment

Subject Dossiers

Economic Outlook

Kiel Institute for
the World Economy