Arbeitspapier

Anchoring Households’ Inflation Expectations When Inflation is High

Autoren

  • Nghiem
  • G.
  • Dräger
  • L.
  • Dalloul
  • A.
Erscheinungsdatum

This paper explores communication strategies for anchoring households’ medium-term inflation expectations in a high inflation environment. We conducted a survey experiment with a representative sample of 4,000 German households at the height of the recent inflation surge in early 2023, with information treatments including a qualitative statement by the ECB president and quantitative information about the ECB’s inflation target or projected inflation. Inflation projections are most effective, but combining information about the target with a qualitative statement also significantly improves anchoring. The treatment effects are particularly pronounced among respondents with high financial literacy and high trust in the central bank.

Experte IfW Kiel

Info

JEL Classification
E520, E310, D840
DOI
10.2139/ssrn.4788241

Schlagworte

  • Verankerung von Inflationserwartungen
  • Zentralbankkommunikation
  • Umfrageexperiment
  • randomisierte kontrollierte Studie (RCT)