Staff Seminar

Drought impact and adaptation options in Central Asia: Economic modeling, analysis and policy implications - Maksud Bekchanov

15 Apr 2019

15:00
-
15:30
Institut für Weltwirtschaft

Sprecher

Maksud Bekchanov (Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung (ZEF), Universität Bonn)  

Autor

Maksud Bekchanov (Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung (ZEF), Universität Bonn)  

Abstract

Droughts driven by global warming and intensified upstream water diversions are key threats to food and income security across the world. Countries such as Uzbekistan where the majority of the population resides in rural areas and agriculture is the backbone of the local economies are especially prone for reduced water availability. This study therefore addresses the water supply reduction impacts on employment, land abandonment, crop water allocations and income levels in Uzbekistan and discusses the potential adaptation measures to cope with the drought. A country-wide CGE model with an extended water account is applied to analyze the water availability reduction effects. As the modeling simulations showed, 10-20% reduction in water supply may reduce the irrigated areas by 241-374 thousands ha and employment opportunities to a population of 712-868 thousands, consequently decreasing national GDP by 3.6-4.3 %. Potential adaptation measures in all levels of water-to-food value chain are discussed. Identifying locally-specific adaptation measures using country-wide multi-regional models with a detailed water system representation and investigating drought insurance options by applying global multi-regional CGE models can be further extensions of the study.

Raum

Medienraum (A-211)