Research Seminar

The Long Road to First Oil — David Mihalyi

27 Apr 2021

Institut für Weltwirtschaft


David Mihalyi (Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI))


The road from a petroleum discovery to production is long, especially in developing countries. On average they take 7 years with a standard deviation of 9 years and a quarter of the fields are yet to reach production. I analyze the drivers of petroleum project timelines using survival analysis and event study methods. Institutions are a key factor. Democracies and state-owned firms operating domestically are significantly quicker. My findings suggest earlier research which measured lagged impacts of giant petroleum discoveries provided biased estimates of subsequent production shocks.

here paper version


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