Vincent Stamer

(4/4) Is there more reliable data on truck/ferry traffic? Without that data, an export shock can not be ruled out. At the same time, data available now does not seem to indicate the dramatic 68% year-over-year drop.

(3/4) British container ports indeed saw reduced export volumes - but the downturn occured in 2019. This is derived from the draught and size of container ships with data from @fleetmon. No shock visible in January 2021. Unfortunately, my data does not include trucks/ferries. t.co/BN0t2nPX1t

(2/4) To isolate trends, I seasonally adjust and normalize data from Eurostat. A huge drop year-over-year would likely be visible by Q3 of 2020. That is not (really) the case. GB_Exports hover around 90% of 2019 values. PROBLEM: Data for Q4 is incomplete. t.co/IjCHrNc6Ia

📢📉"British exports to EU down 68% year-over-year!" A survey of logistic firms cited by @derspiegel last week found.

But, are they?

For the @kielinstitute, I looked at two data sources: Eurostat and high frequency container ship data. (1/4)

RT @katrin_kamin: Welche Auswirkungen hat #covid19 auf die Länder des globalen Südens? Hochfrequente Daten geben Aufschluss über die ökonom…

@kofner1 @GFelbermayr @kielinstitute @HogrefeJens 2. We will surely publish forcecast series going back a few years. So, the new indicator can be fitted into larger models. Algorithm details are already in the paper, the problem is that the shipping data is proprietory...

@kofner1 @GFelbermayr @kielinstitute @HogrefeJens Thanks! 1. Currently we only focus on shipping which is the absolutely dominant transport mode for longer distances. If we can get hands on train data, would be happy to build on an extension. You have a good source?

Very excited to roll out forecast indicators more publically very soon. Stay tuned! Thanks, @GFelbermayr @kielinstitute @HogrefeJens twitter.com/GFelbermayr/st…

RT @kielinstitute: Die Passantenzahlen in deutschen Innenstädten sind auf das Niveau des ersten Lockdowns abgesackt, zeigt unser Datenmonit…

@hoff1nator @GFelbermayr @kielinstitute vincent.stamer@ifw-kiel.de Stehe gerne für Fragen zur Verfügung.