Journal Article

A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1

Economics Bulletin

Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.

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Erscheinungsdatum
JEL Classification
C53, E37, E41