Growth Patterns after the Crisis: This Time is not Different

Kiel Policy Brief

The recovery of the world economy is evolving with a considerable degree of heterogeneity

across countries. While the recovery in emerging countries, in particular in Eastern Asia, was

very pronounced, it was disappointingly slow in most advanced economies. For example, the

upturn was quite strong only during the winter 2009/2010 in the United States and in Japan,

and it has lost momentum since then. In other countries that had been hit by a banking crisis

and/or a housing crisis, such as the United Kingdom, Spain, or Ireland, the recovery has

been sluggish until recently. In this paper, we analyze whether the developments so far are

surprising in the light of experience with previous crises. In other words: Is there any indication

that “this time is different”?1 In particular, we will argue that it is crucial to distinguish

between normal recessions and recessions which are associated with a crisis to classify the

current recovery in the historical context appropriately.


Joachim Scheide


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