Journal Article

A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1

Economics Bulletin

Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real

economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is

also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early

signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand

are controlled for.

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Publication Date
JEL Classification
C53, E37, E41