Poverty Reduction, Equity, and Development
In October 2015, the international community adopted a new set of objectives for global development, the so-called Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs are based on a broader concept of development than the previous Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which focused almost exclusively on reducing absolute poverty.
|However, with more than 2 billion people still living on less than US$ 3 a day, poverty reduction remains firmly on the agenda. It is now complemented by environmental, economic, and social sustainability objectives - covering, for example, the management of scarce land and water resources as well as economic growth, employment and inequality. In addition, the SDGs stress the importance of peace and good governance for sustainable development.|| |
Against this background, PRED aims to create knowledge that can be used by developing and transition countries to devise strategies for poverty reduction and sustainable development. We conduct mainly empirical research in four thematic areas that address global challenges raised by the SDGs:
We address the still unresolved issue of whether and how global efforts to alleviate poverty through more foreign aid can be successful. In doing so, we pursue different avenues. First, we assess possible complementarities between aid and related donor policies on trade, foreign direct investment, and migration. Second, we assess whether aid could be more effective if it were more carefully targeted at sectors that constitute bottlenecks for sustainable development. Third, we focus on local needs and effects using increasingly available geocoded aid data to address the shortcomings of cross-country analyses.
We focus on the welfare of poor rural households that are often vulnerable due to a wide range of factors, including climate change, volatile world market prices for the commodities they produce, and competing uses of the resources that they rely on. Ongoing research projects deal with issues related to land and water use: We analyze the impact of large-scale land acquisitions in Africa on local farm populations and the challenge of increasing food security and reducing poverty in the face of rapid water and energy development in the Eastern Nile river basin.
We conduct inter-disciplinary research to analyze the political economy of institutional and economic development in the context of regional and global integration. We start from the premise that domestic developments are influenced by a country’s international relations with various external powers (e.g. the EU, Russia, and China for countries in the Post-Soviet space) as well as by its regional and global economic integration (e.g. patterns of resource-based trade and migration). Currently, we investigate the impact of competing regional powers on institutional and policy change, the impact of partisan preferences on the formulation of macroeconomic policies, and the emergence of regional clusters of production and welfare systems.
We concentrate on the impact of international labor migration and remittances on the welfare of the migrants themselves, their families left behind, and the broader population in migrant’s countries of origin. We consider monetary as well as non-monetary transmission channels, such as the transfer of political values. Recently, we have begun to address the interaction between host and origin countries. For example, we are running a large randomized control trial (RCT) in the Philippines to improve orientation seminars for departing migrants, which includes raising their awareness of opportunities to send remittances not only to family members, but also to support community projects ("collective remittances"). In a new project (Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration) we provide evidence-based policy advice and conduct related academic research on how to improve the European immigration and asylum system.
As a means of furthering international research cooperation and the exchange of ideas between researchers and development practitioners, our research group hosts the Poverty Reduction, Equity, and Growth Network(PEGNet).
In collaboration with IFPRI and other institutions throughout the world, PRED is often involved in the compilation of Social Accounting Matrices. The resulting datasets provide a wealth of information at the national, regional (agro-ecological zones) and local (household) levels. We freely distribute as many of these datasets as possible and encourage their use in research and policy analysis. Please note that the datasets require proper citation and citation information is included with the accompanying documentation to each dataset.
- Ademmer, E. (Forthcoming). Capitalist Diversity and Compliance: Economic Reforms in Central and Eastern Europe after EU Accession. Journal of European Public Policy
- Andersen, L., Verner, D., Wiebelt, M. (Forthcoming). Gender and Climate Change in Latin America: An Analysis of Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience Based on Household Surveys. The Journal of International Development
- Barsbai, T., Rapoport, H., Steinmayr, A., Trebesch, C. (Forthcoming). The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republic. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
- Beckmann, J., Czudaj, R. (Forthcoming). Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances. Review of International Economics
- Höckel, L., Santos Silva, M., Stöhr, T. (Forthcoming). Can Parental Migration Reduce Petty Corruption in Education?. World Bank Economic Review
- Nunnenkamp, P. (Forthcoming). Biased arbitrators and tribunal decisions against developing countries: Stylized facts on investor-state dispute settlement. Journal of International Development
- Pondorfer, A., Barsbai, T., Schmidt, U. (Forthcoming). Gender Differences in Risk Preferences and Stereotypes: Experimental Evidence from a Matrilineal and a Patrilineal Society. Management Science
- Wiebelt, M., Pauw, K., Matovu, J., Twimukye, E., Benson, T. (Forthcoming). Managing future oil revenue in Uganda for agricultural development and poverty reduction – A CGE analysis of challenges and options. In: O. Badiane and C. Henning (eds.), Modelling and Evaluation of CAADP-Policies: Theory, Methods and Application. Workshop proceedings.
- Ademmer, E. (2017). Russia's Impact on EU Policy Transfer to the Post-Soviet Space - The Contested Neighbourhood.. Routledge, London.
- Beckmann, J., Czudaj, R. (2017). Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Expectations. European Journal of Political Economy, 47, 148-162.
- Beckmann, J., Ademmer, E., Belke, A., Schweickert, R. (2017). The political economy of the impossible trinity. European Journal of Political Economy, 47, 102-123.
- Menkhoff, L., Sakha, S. (2017). Estimating risky behavior with multiple-item risk measures. Journal of Economic Psychology, 59, 59-86.
- Nunnenkamp, P., Öhler, H., Sosa Andrés, M. (2017). Need, Merit, and Politics in Multilateral Aid Allocation: A District-level Analysis of World Bank Projects in India. Review of Development Economics, 21 (1), 126-156.
- Semrau, F., Thiele, R. (2017). Brazil's Development Cooperation: Following in China's and India's Footsteps?. Journal of International Development, 29(3), 287-307.
- Ademmer, E., Delcour, L., Wolczuk, K. (2016). Beyond Geopolitics: exploring the impact of the EU and Russia in the “contested neighborhood”. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 57(1), 1-18.
- Ademmer, E., Dreher, F. (2016). Constraining Political Budget Cycles: Media Strength and Fiscal Institutions in the Enlarged EU. Journal of Common Market Studies, 54(3), 508-524.
- Ademmer, E., Delcour, L. (2016). With a little help from Russia? The European Union and visa liberalization with post-Soviet states. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 57(1), 89-112.
- Ahlborn, M., Ahrens, J., Schweickert, R. (2016). Large-Scale Transition of Economic Systems – Do CEECs Converge Towards Western Prototypes?. Comparative Economic Studies, 58(3), 430-454.
- Bätje, F., Menkhoff, L. (2016). Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Instable? . International Journal of Forecasting, 32(4), 1193-1207.
- Beckmann, J., Schüssler, R. (2016). Forecasting Exchange Rates under Parameter and Model Uncertainty. Journal of International Money and Finance, 60, 267 - 288.
- Beckmann, J., Endrich, M., Schweickert, R. (2016). Government Activity and Economic Growth – One Size Fits All?. International Economics and Economic Policy, 13 (3), 429 - 450.
- Beckmann, J., Berger, T., Czudaj, R. (2016). Oil Price and FX-Rates Dependency. Quantitative Finance, 16 (3), 477 - 488.
- Benček, D., Strasheim, J. (2016). Refugees Welcome? Introducing a New Dataset on Anti-Refugee Violence in Germany, 2014–2015. Research and Politics, 3(4)
- Breisinger, C., Ecker, O., Thiele, R., Wiebelt, M. (2016). Effects of the 2008 Flood on Economic Performance and Food Security in Yemen: A Simulation Analysis. Disasters, 40(2), 304-326.
- Donaubauer, J., Meyer, B., Nunnenkamp, P. (2016). Aid, Infrastructure, and FDI: Assessing the Transmission Channel with a New Index of Infrastructure. World Development, 78, 230-245.
- Donaubauer, J., Nunnenkamp, P. (2016). Is Aid for Infrastructure Effective? A Difference-in-Difference-in-Differences Approach. Economics Bulletin, 36 (2), 857-870.
- Hettig, E., Lay, J., Sipangule, K. (2016). Drivers of Households' Land-use Decisions - A Critical Review of Micro-level Studies in Tropical Regions. Land, 5(4), 32.
- Kim, Y., Nunnenkamp, P., Bagchi, C. (2016). The Indian Ocean Tsunami and Private Donations to NGOs. Disasters, 40 (4), 591-620.
- Kleemann, L., Nunnenkamp, P., Thiele, R. (2016). Gender inequality, female leadership, and aid allocation: A panel analysis of aid for education. Journal of International Development, 28 (3), 376-395.
- Kleemann, L. (2016). Organic Pineapple Farming in Ghana - A Good Choice for Smallholders. Journal of Developing Areas, 50(3), 109-130.
- Kleemann, L. (2016). The Relevance of Certifications and Business Practices in Linking Smallholders and Large Agro-businesses in Sub-Sahara Africa . IFAMR, 19(4), 65-78.
- Minasyan, A., Nunnenkamp, P. (2016). Remittances and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid. Review of Development Economics, 20(3), 681-701.
- Nunnenkamp, P., Sotirova, A., Thiele, R. (2016). Do Aid Donors Specialize and Coordinate within Recipient Countries? The Case of Malawi . Development Policy Review, 34(6), 831-849.
- Andersen, L., Breisinger, C., Jemio, L., Mason-D'Croz, D., Ringler, C., Robertson, R., Verner, D., Wiebelt, M. (2016). Climate Change Impacts and Household Resilience - Prospects for 2050 in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. Food Policy Report 30. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
- Andersen, L. (2016). Migration, Poverty and Equality. PEGNet Policy Brief, 4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel
- Klasen, S. (2016). What to Do About Rising Inequality in Developing Countries?. PEGNet Policy Brief, 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel
- Nunnenkamp, P., Rank, M., Thiele, R. (2016). Aid Fragmentation and Donor Coordination in Uganda: A District-level Analysis. In: S. Klingebiehl, T. Mahn, M. Negre (eds.) , The Fragmentation of Aid: Concepts, Measurement, and Implications for Development Policy,Palgrave-McMillan Rethinking International Development Series.
- Benček, D. (2016). Opportunistic Candidates and Knowledgeable Voters – A Recipe for Extreme Views. Kiel Working Paper, 2047, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 18 pp.
- Donaubauer, J., Herzer, D., Nunnenkamp, P. (2016). The Effectiveness of Aid under Post-conflict Conditions: A Sector-specific Analysis. Kiel Working Paper, 2065, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 35 pp.
- Khadjavi, M., Sipangule, K., Thiele, R. (2016). Social Capital and Large-scale Agricultural Investment: An Experimental Investigation in Zambia. Kiel Working Paper, 2056, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 43 pp.
- Minasyan, A., Nunnenkamp, P., Richert, K. (2016). Does Aid Effectiveness Depend on the Quality of Donors?. Kiel Working Paper, 2046, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 27 pp.
- Nunnenkamp, P. (2016). Recent Patterns of Post-Conflict Aid: Did Donors Help Sustain Peace?. Kiel Working Paper, 2043, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 25 pp.
- Stöhr, T., Wichardt, P. (2016). Openness to Concerns of Host Country Population Improves Attitudes Towards Immigrants. Kiel Working Paper, 2045, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 25 pp.
- Acht, M., Barsbai, T., Thiele, R. (2015). Corrupt Governments Do Not Receive More State-to-state Aid: Governance and the Delivery of Foreign Aid through Non-state Actors. Journal of Development Economics, 114, 20-33.
- Ademmer, E. (2015). Interdependence and EU-demanded Policy Change in a Shared Neighbourhood. Journal of European Public Policy, 22(5), 671-689.
- Ahrens, J., Schweickert, R., Zenker, J. (2015). Varieties of Capitalism, Governance and Government Spending in Developed and Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Development, 40 (1)
- Al-Riffai, P., Blohmke, J., Breisinger, C., Wiebelt, M. (2015). Harnessing the Sun and Wind for Economic Development? An Economy-Wide Assessment for Egypt. Sustainability, 7(6), 7714-7740.
- Beckmann, J., Czudaj, R., Pilbeam, K. (2015). Causality and Volatility Patterns between Gold Prices and Exchange Rates. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 34
- Beckmann, J., Berger, T., Czudaj, R. (2015). Does Gold Act as a Hedge or a Safe Heaven for Stocks? A Smooth Transition Approach. Economic Modelling, 48
- Beckmann, J., Belke, A. (2015). Monetary Policy and Stock Prices – Cross-Country Evidence from Cointegrated VAR Models. Journal of Banking and Finance, 54, 254-265.
- Böhme, M., Persian, R., Stoehr, T. (2015). Alone but Better Off? Adult Child Migration and Health of Elderly Parents in Moldova. Journal of Health Economics, 39, 211-227.
- Böhme, M. (2015). Does Migration Raise Agricultural Investment? An Empirical Analysisfor Rural Mexico. Agricultural Economics, 46(2), 211-225.
- Böhme, M. (2015). Migration and educational aspirations – Another channel of brain gain?. IZA Journal of Migration, 4: 12
- Canavire-Bacarreza, G., Neumayer, E., Nunnenkamp, P. (2015). Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap between Actual and Planned Aid Flows. Journal of International Development, 27 (4), 440-463.
- Dick, C., MacDonald, R., Menkhoff, L. (2015). Exchange Rate Forecasts and Expected Fundamentals. Journal of International Money and Finance, 53, 235-256.
- Dreher, A., Minasyan, A., Nunnenkamp, P. (2015). Government Ideology in Donor and Recipient Countries: Does Ideological Proximity Matter for the Effectiveness of Aid? . European Economic Review, 79, 80-92.
- Dreher, A., Nunnenkamp, P., Schmaljohann, M. (2015). The Allocation of German Aid: Self-interest and Government Ideology. Economics and Politics, 27 (1), 160-184.
- Fuchs, A., Nunnenkamp, P., Öhler, H. (2015). Why Donors of Foreign Aid Do Not Coordinate: The Role of Competition for Export Markets and Political Support. World Economy, 38 (2), 255-285.
- Kim, Y., Nunnenkamp, P. (2015). Does It Pay for US-based NGOs to Go to War? Empirical Evidence for Afghanistan and Iraq. Development & Change, 46 (3), 387-414.
- Kleemann, L., Thiele, R. (2015). Rural Welfare Implications of Large-scale Land Acquisitions in Africa: A Theoretical Framework. Economic Modelling, 51, 269-279.
- Licuanan, V., Omar Mahmoud, T., Steinmayr, A. (2015). The Drivers of Diaspora Donations for Development: Evidence from the Philippines. World Development, 65, 94-109.
- Stoehr, T. (2015). The Returns to Occupational Foreign Language Use: Evidence from Germany. Labour Economics, 32, 86-98.
- Stöhr, T. (2015). Siblings’ interaction in migration decisions: who provides for the elderly left behind?. Journal of Population Economics, 28(3), 593-629.
- Wiebelt, M., Al-Riffai, P., Breisinger, C., Robertson, R. (2015). Who bears the costs of climate change? Evidence from Tunisia. Journal of Developing Areas, 49(2), 1-21.
- Grimm, M., Sipangule, K., Thiele, R., Wiebelt, M. (2015). Changing Views on Growth: What Became of Pro-poor Growth?. PEGNet Policy Brief, 1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel
- Hühne, P., Meyer, B., Nunnenkamp, P. (2015). Aid for Trade: Assessing the Effects on Recipient Exports of Manufactures and Primary Commodities to Donors and Non-donors. M. Arvin, B. Lew, Handbook on the Economics of Foreign Aid. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
- Fratzscher, M., Gloede, O., Menkhoff, L., Sarno, L., Stöhr, T. (2015). When is foreign exchange intervention effective? Evidence from 33 countries.
- Jemio, L., Andersen, L., Breisinger, C., Wiebelt, M. (2015). An agriculture-focused, regionally disaggregated SAM for Mexico 2008. IFPRI Data Paper, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 25 pp.
- Jemio, L., Andersen, L., Breisinger, C., Wiebelt, M. (2015). Regional development, income distribution and gender in Bolivia. Insights from a 2012 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and Multiplier Analysis. IFPRI Data Paper, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, 41 pp.
- Lücke, M., Stöhr, T. (2015). Heterogeneous Immigrants and Foreign Direct Investment: The Role of Language Skills. Kiel Working Paper, 2009, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 23 pp.