Zentralbanken und die Gestaltung der Geldpolitik

Even if central bankers put great emphasis on verbal communication, economists have not yet systematically studied the relationship between central bank words and central bank deeds, and especially not the information content of central bank words elicited by the reaction of financial markets. In order to properly describe the central bank conduct of monetary policy we need two dimensions: both monetary policy and news shocks, i.e. the difference between what the central bank does (or announces) with respect to what the market expects the central bank to do (or announce). This research project aims to assess the importance and effectiveness of central bank communication. Examples of questions we want to focus on are: Do central bank announcements affect market expectations about the future path of monetary policy? What is more effective in the USA and in Europe between central bank’s words and deeds in moving asset prices? Is the European Central Bank rhetoric more credible than the U.S. Federal Reserve communication?