Macroeconomic Policy under Market Imperfections
Our Agenda:
Market economies experience frequent and prolonged fluctuations in economic activity, with booms followed by recessions. Recessions are of particular concern to the general public and for policymakers alike because they imply declining income and increasing unemployment. On the other hand, booms can lead to an overheating economy and inflationary pressures. Monetary policy is a very powerful instrument to dampen these fluctuations.
We believe that business cycle fluctuations are affected by market imperfections and institutions. Examples for market imperfections are the costs of hiring workers, the costs to obtain credit or the barriers to enter new markets. Examples for relevant institutions are trade unions and employment protection legislation. We analyze the role of market imperfections and institutions in dynamic general equilibrium models. Much of our analysis naturally leads to important policy implications, like the optimal conduct of monetary policy.
Our expertise:
- Selection on labor markets: We have developed a micro-founded and intuitive alternative to the search and matching framework for modeling unemployment.
- Heterogeneity: We emphasize heterogeneity among agents or technologies. E.g., we account for differences between new and established firms, or institutional differences between countries.
- Global perspective: We use open economy models, e.g., to assess the importance of labor market asymmetries in a currency union and to analyze the consequences of protectionism during a crisis.
- Methodology: While the modeling of market imperfections within the DSGE-framework is our core theoretical expertise, the intensive interaction with the Institute’s Forecasting Center provides us with strong expertise in empirical methods such as VAR modeling and Bayesian estimation.
Our Network:
The research area organizes the policy-oriented network “Ensuring Economic and Employment Stability” (EES), which addresses the link between the business cycle and unemployment. The network brings together leading researchers in the field to discuss cutting edge research. Among the participants of our workshops and conferences were Chris Pissarides and Dale Mortensen (both winners of the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics), Robert Hall, Robert Shimer, Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, Jordi Galí, Per Krusell, John Haltiwanger, Eran Yashiv, Guiseppe Moscarini and Richard Rogerson. For more details on the network and its member institutions follow this link (www.ees.ifw-kiel.de/).
Projects
Recent Publications
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Forthcoming
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Research Publications
- Aßmann, C., Boysen-Hogrefe, J., Jannsen, N. (Forthcoming). Costs of Housing Crises: International Evidence. Bulletin of Economic Research
- Campolmi, A., Faia, E., Winkler, R. (Forthcoming). Fiscal Calculus in a New Keynesian Model with Matching Frictions . B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics
- Graham, L., Snower, D. (Forthcoming). Hyperbolic Discounting and the Phillips Curve . Macroeconomic Dynamics
- Lechthaler, W., Snower, D. (Forthcoming). Quadratic Labor Adjustment Costs, Business Cycle Dynamics and Optimal Monetary Policy. Macroeconomic Dynamics
- Weber, H. (Forthcoming). Product Replacement Bias in Inflation and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
- Winkler, R., Wohltmann, H. (Forthcoming). On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks. Economic letters
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2012
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Research Publications
- Reicher, C. (2012). A Simple Decomposition of the Variance of Output Growth Across Countries. Applied Economics Letters, 19(9), Routledge, 869-872.
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Working Papers
- Ahrens, S., Snower, D. (2012). Envy, Guilt, and the Phillips Curve. Kiel Working Paper, 1754, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 36 pp.
- Berger, H., Weber, H. (2012). Money as Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest. IMF Working Paper, WP/12/6, p.52.
- Merkl, C., van Rens, T. (2012). Selective Hiring and Welfare Analysis in Labor Market Models . Kiel Working Paper, 1752, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 29 pp.
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2011
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Research Publications
- Angeloni, I., Faia, E., Winkler, R. (2011). Debt Consolidation and Financial Stability. Revue Economique, 62(6)
- Boysen-Hogrefe, J., Pape, M. (2011). More Than Just One Labor Market Cycle in Germany? An Analysis of Regional Unemployment Data. Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung, 44(3), 279-292.
- Campolmi, A., Faia, E. (2011). Labor Market Institutions and Inflation Volatility in the Euro Area. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35(5), 793-812.
- Faia, E., Iliiopulos, E. (2011). Financial openness, financial frictions and optimal monetary policy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
- Faia, E., (2011). Macroeconomic and welfare implications of financial globalization. Journal of Applied Economics, 14(1), 119-144.
- Larch, M., Lechthaler, W. (2011). Why "Buy American'' is a Bad Idea but Politicians Still Like It. Canadian Journal of Economics, 44(3), 838-858.
- Merkl, C., Wesselbaum, D. (2011). Extensive vs. Intensive Margin in Germany and the United States: Any Differences?. Applied Economic Letters, 18 (9), 805-808.
- Tesfaselassie, M., Schaling, E., Eijffinger, S. (2011). Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43 (8), 1685-1706.
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Further Publications
- Boysen-Hogrefe, J. (2011). Was kostet der Eurobond?. IfW-Fokus, 102
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Working Papers
- Ahrens, S., Sacht, S. (2011). Estimating a High-Frequency New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. Kiel Working Paper, 1686, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 22 pages.
- Angeloni, I., Faia, E., Winkler, R. (2011). Exit Strategies. Kiel Working Paper, 1676, Kiel Institute, 54 pp.
- Chugh, S., Merkl, C. (2011). Efficiency in a Model of Labor Selection. Kiel Working Paper, 1684, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 63 pp.
- Faia, E., (2011). Credit Risk Transfers and the Macroeconomy. Kiel Working Paper, 1677, Kiel Institute, Kiel, 42 pp.
- Jannsen, N., Klein, M. (2011). The International Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy Shocks. Kiel Working Papers, 1718, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 42 pp.
- Larch, M., Lechthaler, W. (2011). Is There a Short-Run Case for Protectionism? Trade Policy and the Business Cycle. Kiel Working Paper, 1717, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel, 29 pp.
- Larch, M., Lechthaler, W. (2011). Whom to Send to Doha? The Shortsighted Ones!. Kiel Working Paper, 1695, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 25 pp.
- Reicher, C. (2011). A simple decomposition of the variance of output growth across countries. Kiel Working Papers, 1703, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 7 pp.
- Reicher, C. (2011). A tale of two countries: A comparison of the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocation in the United States and Germany. Kiel Working Papers, 1721, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 27 pp.
- Reicher, C., , (2011). Matching labor’s share in a search and matching model. Kiel Working Papers, 1733, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 35 pp.
- Reicher, C. (2011). The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation. Kiel Working Papers, 1720, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 63 pp.
- Tesfaselassie, M. (2011). Trend Growth and Learning About Monetary Policy Rules. Kiel Working Paper, 1744, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 19 pp.
- Tesfaselassie, M. (2011). Trend Growth and the Dynamic Effects of Government Spending. Kiel Working Paper, 1678, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 23 pp.
- Weber, H. (2011). Optimal inflation and firms' productivity dynamics. Kiel Working Paper, 1685, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 48 pp.
- Wesselbaum, D. (2011). The Intensive Margin Puzzle and Labor Market Adjustment Costs. Kiel Working Paper, 1701, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 17 pp.
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2010
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Research Publications
- Ascari, G., Vaona, A. (2010). Regional Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Italy. Regional Studies
- Aßmann, C., Boysen-Hogrefe, J. (2010). Analysis of Current Account Reversals via Regime Switching Models. Economic Change and Restructuring, 43(1), 21-43.
- Boysen-Hogrefe, J., Groll, D. (2010). The German Labour Market Miracle. National Institute Economic Review, 214, R38-R50.
- Boysen-Hogrefe, J., Groll, D., Lechthaler, W., Merkl, C. (2010). The Role of Labor Market Institutions in the Great Recession. Applied Economics Quarterly, 56(61), 65-88.
- Erhart, S., Lehment, H., Vasquez Paz, J. (2010). Monetary policy committee size and inflation volatility. International Economics and Economic Policy, 11 pp.
- Faia, E., (2010). Financial Frictions and The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes. Economic Inquiry , 965-982.
- Jannsen, N. (2010). National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises. Applied Economics Quarterly, 56(2), 175-206.
- Karanassou, M., Sala, H., Snower, D. (2010). Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective. Journal of Economic Surveys, 24(1), 1-51.
- Lechthaler, W., Merkl, C., Snower, D. (2010). Monetary Persistence and the Labor Market: A New Perspective. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34(5), 968-983 .
- Tesfaselassie, M., Schaling, E. (2010). Managing Disinflation under Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34, 2568-2577.
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Working Papers
- Benigno, P., Faia, E. (2010). Globalization, Pass-Through and Inflation Dynamics. Kiel Working Paper, 1604, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 43 pp.
- Boysen-Hogrefe, J., Jannsen, N., Meier, C. (2010). The Ugly and the Bad: Banking and Housing Crises Strangle Output Permanently, Ordinary Recessions Do Not. Kiel Working Papers, 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 31 pp.
- Campolmi, A., Faia, E., Winkler, R. (2010). Fiscal Calculus in a New Keynesian Model with Matching Frictions. Kiel Working Paper, 1602, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 36 pp.
- Faia, E., Iliopulos, E. (2010). Financial Globalization, Financial Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy. Kiel Working Papers, 1639, IfW, Kiel, 45 pp.
- Herwartz, H., Weber, H. (2010). The Euro’s Trade Effect under Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity and Stochastic Resistance. Kiel Working Paper, 1631, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 33 pp.
- Neugebauer, J., Wesselbaum, D. (2010). Staggered Wages, Sticky Prices, and Labor Market Dynamics in Matching Models. Kiel Working Papers, 1608, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 14 pp.
- Reicher, C. (2010). Credit Bubbles and Land Bubbles. Kiel Working Papers, 1635, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 18 pp.
- Reicher, C. (2010). Evaluating the search and matching model with sticky wages.
- Reicher, C., Utlaut, J. (2010). The (puzzlingly large) relationship between oil prices and long-term interest rates. Kiel Working Papers, 1637, IfW, Kiel, 32 pp.
- Vaona, A. (2010). Inflation and Growth in the Long Run: A New Keynesian Theory and Further Semiparametric Evidence. Working Paper Series, 9, University of Verona, Verona, 68 pp.
- Wesselbaum, D. (2010). Price Bargaining, the Persistence Puzzle, and Monetary Policy. Kiel Working Paper, 1629, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 29 pp.
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2009
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Research Publications
- Ascari, G., Merkl, C. (2009). Real Wage Rigidities and the Cost of Disinflations. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 41 (2-3), 417-435.
- Aßmann, C., Boysen-Hogrefe, J., Liesenfeld, R. (2009). The Decline in German Output Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis. Empirical Economics, 37, 653-679.
- Carstensen, K., Hagen, J., Hossfeld, O., Neaves, A. (2009). Money Demand Stability and Inflation: Prediction in the Four Largest EMU Countries. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 56(1), 73-93.
- Faia, E., (2009). Ramsey Monetary Policy with Labour Market Frictions. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(4): 570-581, 38 pp.
- Hoeberichts, M., Tesfaselassie, M., Eijffinger, S. (2009). Central Bank Communication and Output Stabilization. Oxford Economic Papers, 61, 2, 395-411.
- Jonas, D., Jannsen, N., Scheide, J. (2009). Die Bedeutung monetärer Größen für die deutsche Wachstumsschwäche 1995-2005. Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, 60(1), 17-36.
- Merkl, C., Snower, D. (2009). Monetary Persistence, Imperfect Competition and Staggering Complementarities. Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 13, pp. 81-106.
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Further Publications
- Merkl, C., Stolz, S. (2009). Banks’ Regulatory Buffers, Liquidity Networks and Monetary Policy Transmission. Applied Economics, 41 (16), 2013-2024.
- Tesfaselassie, M. (2009). Looking Forward: Exiting Unconventional Monetary Policy. Kiel Institute (eds), The Crisis and Beyond. Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel.
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Working Papers
- Angeloni, I., Faia, E. (2009). A Tale of Two Policies: Prudential Regulation and Monetary Policy with Fragile Banks. Kiel Working Paper, 1569, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 46 pp.
- Aßmann, C., Boysen-Hogrefe, J., Jannsen, N. (2009). Costs of Housing Crises: International Evidence. Kiel Working Paper, 1524, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 19 pp.
- Aßmann, C., Boysen-Hogrefe, J. (2009). Reproducing business cycle features in Germany - an evaluation for the need of nonlinear models.
- Faia, E., (2009). Oligopolistic Competition and Optimal Monetary Policy. Kiel Working Paper, 1552, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 28 pp.
- Faia, E., Lechthaler, W., Merkl, C. (2009). Labor Turnover Costs, Workers' Heterogeneity and Optimal Monetary Policy. Kiel Working Paper, 1534, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 38 pp.
- Faia, E., Rossi, L. (2009). Unions Power, Collective Bargaining and Optimal Monetary Policy. Kiel Working Papers, 1490, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 32 pp..
- Gartner, H., Merkl, C., Rothe, T. (2009). They Are Even Larger! More (on) Puzzling Labor Market Volatilities. Kiel Working Paper, 1545, 28 pp.
- Golosnoy, V., Boysen-Hogrefe, J. (2009). Sequential Methodology for Signaling Business Cycle Turning Points. Kiel Working Paper, 1528, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 26 pp.
- Jannsen, N. (2009). National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises. Kiel Working Paper, 1510, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel, 23 pp.
- Merkl, C., Schmitz, T. (2009). Macroeconomic Volatilities and the Labor Market: First Results from the Euro Experiment. Kiel Working Paper, 1511, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 24 pp.
- Reicher, C. (2009). Expectations, Monetary Policy, and Labor Markets: Lessons from the Great Depression. Kiel Working Papers, 1543, Ifw Kiel, Kiel, 58.
- Reicher, C. (2009). Fiscal Taylor Rules in the Postwar United States. Kiel Working Paper, 1509, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 27 pp.
- Reicher, C. (2009). What Can a New Keynesian Labor Matching Model Match?. Kiel Working Papers, 1496, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 52.
- Tesfaselassie, M., Schaling, E. (2009). On Determinacy and Learnability in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment. Kiel Working Paper, 1506, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 19 pp.
- van Roye, B., Wesselbaum, D. (2009). Capital, Endogenous Separations, and the Business Cycle. Kiel Working Paper, 1561, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 30 pp.
- Weber, H. (2009). Monetary policy and mismeasured inflation. EUI Working Papers, RSCAS 2009/44, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, Florenz, 58 pp.
- Wesselbaum, D. (2009). Firing Costs in a Business Cycle Model with Endogenous Separations. Kiel Working Paper, 1550, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 22 pp.
- Winkler, R., Wohltmann, H. (2009). On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks. Kiel Working Paper, 1542, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 7 pp.
- Wohltmann, H., Winkler, R. (2009). On the Non-Optimality of Information: An Analysis of the Welfare Effects of Anticipated Shocks in the New Keynesian Model. Kiel Working Paper, 1497, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 43 pp.
- Wohltmann, H., Winkler, R. (2009). Rational Expectations Models with Anticipated Shocks and Optimal Policy: A General Solution Method and a New Keynesian Example. Kiel Working Paper, 1507, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 27 pp.
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2008
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Research Publications
- Boysen-Hogrefe, J. (2008). Forecasting data revisions of GDP: a mixed frequency approach . AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 92, 271-296.
- Döpke, J., Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., Slacalek, J. (2008). The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 8(1)
- Döpke, J., Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., Slacalek, J. (2008). Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 40 (7), 1513-1519.
- Dovern, J., Ziegler, C. (2008). Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions. Applied Economics Quarterly, 54
- Graham, L., Snower, D. (2008). Hyperbolic Discounting and the Phillips Curve. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 40 (2-3), 427-448.
- Karanassou, M., Sala, H., Snower, D. (2008). Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(2), 279-300.
- Karanassou, M., Sala, H., Snower, D. (2008). The Evolution of Inflation and Unemployment: Explaining the Roaring Nineties. Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 47(4), 334-354.
- Rosa, C., Verga, G. (2008). The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time. International Journal of Central Banking
- Snower, D., Vaona, A. (2008). Increasing Returns to Scale and the Long-Run Phillips Curve. Economics Letters, 100(1), 83-86.
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Working Papers
- Dovern, J., Fritsche, U. (2008). Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts. Discussion Papers, 787, DIW, Berlin
- Tesfaselassie, M. (2008). Central Bank Learning and Monetary Policy. Kiel Working Paper, 1444, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 10 pp.
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2007
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Research Publications
- Eijffinger, S., Tesfaselassie, M. (2007). Central Bank Forecasts and Disclosure Policy: Why It Pays to be Optimistic. European Journal of Political Economy, 23, 30-50.
- Engler, P., Jokipii, T., Merkl, C., Rovira Kaltwasser, P., Vinhas de Souza, L. (2007). The Effect of Capital Requirement Regulations on the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Austria. Empirica, 34, 411-425.
- Rosa, C., Verga, G. (2007). On the Consistency and Effectiveness of Central Bank Communication: Evidence from the ECB. European Journal of Political Economy, 23, 146-175.
- Rosa, C., (2007). Providing Content to ECB Announcements. Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali
- Schiavo, S., Vaona, A. (2007). Nonparametric and Semiparametric Evidence on the Long-Run Effects of Inflation on Growth. Economics Letters, 94 (3), 452-458.
- Vaona, A. (2007). Merging the Purchasing Power Parity and the Phillips Curve Literatures. International Regional Science Review, 30 (2), 152-172.
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Further Publications
- Carstensen, K., Hagen, J., Hossfeld, O., Neaves, A. (2007). Money Demand and Money Overhang in the Four Largest EMU Countries.
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Working Papers
- Ascari, G., Vaona, A. (2007). Regional Patterns of Inflation Persistence in Italy. Quaderni di Dipartimento, 192 (02-07), Università di Pavia, Pavia, Italy, 11 pp.
- Hammermann, F. (2007). Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation in Romania: A Decomposition. Kiel Working Paper, 1322, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, 21 pp.
- Hammermann, F., Flanagan, M. (2007). What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?. Working Paper, 1373
- Karanassou, M., Sala, H., Snower, D. (2007). The Evolution of Inflation and Unemployment: Explaining the Roaring Nineties. Kiel Working Paper, 1350, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel, 26 pp.
- Rosa, C., (2007). Talking Less and Moving in the Market More: Is this the Recipe for Monetary Policy Effectiveness? Evidence from the ECB and the FED. CEP Discussion Paper, 855
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2006
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Research Publications
- Carstensen, K. (2006). Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function. German Economic Review, 7, 01.01.34.
- Carstensen, K. (2006). Stock Market Downswing and the Stability of European Monetary Union Money Demand. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 24, 395-402.
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Further Publications
- Carstensen, K., Colavecchio, R. (2006). Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?. Rivista Italiana degli Economisti, 11, 395-402.
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Working Papers
- Merkl, C., Stolz, S. (2006). Banks’ Regulatory Buffers, Liquidity Networks and Monetary Policy Transmission. Bundesbank Discussion Paper, Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies, No. 6/2006
- Rosa, C., Verga, G. (2006). The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market. CEP Discussion Paper, 764
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2005
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Research Publications
- Esanov, A., Merkl, C., Vinhas de Souza, L. (2005). Monetary Policy Rules for Russia. Journal of Comparative Economics, 33 (3), 484–499.
- Karanassou, M., Sala, H., Snower, D. (2005). A Reappraisal of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff. European Journal of Political Economy, 21(1), 1-32.
- Weber, H., Herwartz, H. (2005). Exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth - a comparison of linear and nonlinear (forecasting) models. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, Vol. 21(1), 1 - 26.
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2002
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Working Papers
- Karanassou, M., Snower, D. (2002). An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve. IZA Discussion Paper, 635, IZA, Bonn, 19 pp.
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